ABSTRACT
Background and aim: With the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continuing to impact healthcare systems around the world, healthcare providers are attempting to balance resources devoted to COVID-19 patients while minimizing excess mortality overall (both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients). To this end, we conducted a systematic review (SR) to describe the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause excess mortality (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) during the pandemic timeframe compared to non-pandemic times. Methods: We searched EMBASE, Cochrane Database of SRs, MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CENTRAL), from inception (1948) to December 31, 2020. We used a two-stage review process to screen/extract data. We assessed risk of bias using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). We used Critical Appraisal and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Results: Of 11,581 citations, 194 studies met eligibility. Of these studies, 31 had mortality comparisons (n = 433,196,345 participants). Compared to pre-pandemic times, during the COVID-19 pandemic, our meta-analysis demonstrated that COVID-19 mortality had an increased risk difference (RD) of 0.06% (95% CI: 0.06-0.06% p < 0.00001). All-cause mortality also increased [relative risk (RR): 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.38-1.70, p < 0.00001] alongside non-COVID-19 mortality (RR: 1.18, 1.07-1.30, p < 0.00001). There was "very low" certainty of evidence through GRADE assessment for all outcomes studied, demonstrating the evidence as uncertain. Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic may have caused significant increases in all-cause excess mortality, greater than those accounted for by increases due to COVID-19 mortality alone, although the evidence is uncertain. Systematic review registration: [https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/#recordDetails], identifier [CRD42020201256].
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: As the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues, healthcare providers struggle to manage both COVID-19 and non-COVID patients while still providing high-quality care. We conducted a systematic review/meta-analysis to describe the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with non-COVID illness and on healthcare systems compared to non-pandemic epochs. METHODS: We searched Ovid MEDLINE/EMBASE/Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews/CENTRAL/CINAHL (inception to December 31, 2020). All study types with COVID-pandemic time period (after December 31, 2019) with comparative non-pandemic time periods (prior to December 31, 2019). Data regarding study characteristics/case-mix/interventions/comparators/ outcomes (primary: mortality; secondary: morbidity/hospitalizations/disruptions-to-care. Paired reviewers conducted screening and abstraction, with conflicts resolved by discussion. Effect sizes for specific therapies were pooled using random-effects models. Risk of bias was assessed by Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, with evidence rating using GRADE methodology. RESULTS: Of 11,581 citations, 167 studies met eligibility. Our meta-analysis showed an increased mortality of 16% during the COVID pandemic for non-COVID illness compared with 11% mortality during the pre-pandemic period (RR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.28-1.50; absolute risk difference: 5% [95% CI: 4-6%], p<0.00001, very low certainty evidence). Twenty-eight studies (17%) reported significant changes in morbidity (where 93% reported increases), while 30 studies (18%) reported no significant change (very low certainty). Thirty-nine studies (23%) reported significant changes in hospitalizations (97% reporting decreases), while 111 studies (66%) reported no significant change (very low certainty). Sixty-two studies (37%) reported significant disruptions in standards-to-care (73% reporting increases), while 62 studies (37%) reported no significant change (very low certainty). CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant increase in mortality during the COVID pandemic compared to pre-pandemic times for non-COVID illnesses. When significant changes were reported, there was increased morbidity, decreased hospitalizations and increased disruptions in standards-of-care. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020201256 (Sept 2, 2020).
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus , COVID-19/epidemiology , Health Personnel , Hospitalization , Humans , PandemicsABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: In December 2019, the first cases of COVID-19 associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral infection were described in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Since then, it has spread rapidly affecting 188 countries and was declared a pandemic by the WHO on 11 March 2020. Preliminary reports suggest up to 30% of patients require intensive care unit (ICU) admission and case fatality rate estimate is 2.3%-7.2%. The primary reason for ICU admission is hypoxaemic respiratory failure, while factors associated with ICU admission include increased age, presence of comorbidities and cytokine storm. Case series and retrospective trials initially assessed proposed treatments with randomised controlled trials now reporting early outcomes. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify epidemiological factors, treatments and complications that predict mortality among critically ill patients with COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Our comprehensive search strategy was developed in consultation with a research librarian. We will search electronic databases: Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, Ovid Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Wiley Cochrane Library. The search strategy combines concepts from COVID-19, validated COVID-19 search filters and geographical locations of large outbreaks. Citation screening, selection, quality assessment and data abstraction will be performed in duplicate. Clinically homogenous epidemiological characteristics, interventions and complications will be pooled in statistical meta-analysis. Within the framework of a living systematic review, the search and data analysis will be updated every 6 months. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Our systematic review will synthesise literature on risk factors and interventions associated with mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19. Results will be presented at national and international conferences and submitted for peer-reviewed publication. The pooled analysis can provide guidance to inform clinical guidelines for care of critically ill patients with COVID-19. Iterative updates will be made public through open access. Research ethics approval is not required. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020176672.